Permatang Pauh By-Election..a behavioural analysis

I am just an amateur when comes to political analysis. It is good for our mind to come up with an analysis as to who would win the election tomorrow - Anwar Ibrahim or Ariff Shah Omar Shah? What I am looking for is the x-factor in both the candidates, or rather who has more of the x-history leadership factor or quality. Throughout history, a leader has always been associated with some traits that are meant for the so-called historical winner and the historical loser. Leaders are the maker of history of a country. Good or bad it does not matter, but history has given them a role to play. Anwar, judging from his physical traits, he is fast, quick in movement and in talking, the kind of individual that history seems to favour. Judging from reports from here and there, he would be the winner. But a winner today might not be a winner tomorrow. Or history too might be kind to him in the sense, a winner today and a historical winner tomorrow. So let us see..